How much did piracy hurt 'Wolverine' boxoffice?

By Matthew Belloni

The opening weekend numbers are in, and the hottest question in the anti-piracy community has been answered...sort of..OK, not really.

As THR's Carl DiOrio reports, Fox's "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" pulled in an estimated $87 million domestically this weekend, making it a solid hit. Now the query that was first raised when the unfinished workprint of the film leaked on March 30th is center stage: what could have been?

The answer is unknowable, of course, and the file-sharing community will no doubt point to the big total as proof that piracy doesn't really hurt the studios, at least not when it comes to theatrical boxoffice. But a close look at the numbers suggest the leak indeed might have cost Fox. How much? Tons of variables are at work here; everything from mixed reviews to swine flu. But here are a couple purely speculative piracy loss scenarios: 

$7.18 milllion -- Reports following the leak suggested that about 1 million people viewed at least part of the workprint. That number seemed low to us, given the publicity, the Web savvy of the film's core audience and how easy it is now to access torrent sites via Google. But accepting that number and multiplying it by $7.18, which is the average North American movie ticket price, the early availability might have shaved about $7.18 million off the opening weekend numbers. Caveats: Sure, many of those who cared enough to look at the leaked version no doubt donned their muttonchops and plastic claws to see the finished film on opening night. And plenty of lookie-loos never would have seen the film anyways. (Plus, the 1 million presumably refers to views worldwide, not just North America.) But the leak also contributed to some negative buzz about the film, which--like with Universal's leaked "Hulk" in 2003--reverberated beyond the pirate community ("Wolverine's" RottenTomato rating ended up at a splattering 38%).       

$15.75 million -- That's the difference between the opening weekend domestic gross of "Wolverine" and "X-Men: The Last Stand." Brett Ratner's 2006 contribution to the series opened to a more impressive $102.75. Granted, that benchmark seems unfair because "X-3" opened over the Memorial Day weekend (its 4-day total was $122.9 million) and was riding high on fan support of Bryan Singer's well-received "X-2: X-Men United." But an argument could be made that a prequel about the series' most popular character, released as the summer kickoff in a year of recession-supercharged boxoffice, would have reached $100 million without piracy.

$14.1 million -- A better comparison for "Wolverine" might be the $102.1 that "Iron Man" pulled in over the same weekend last year. That comic book adaptation launched without the built-in franchise power that "Wolverine" has and without the recession boost but still managed to outgross it by an estimated 14.1 million. (Good reviews helped the Jon Favreau pic, but these movies are review-proof, aren't they?)

$00 -- What if the copyleft is right and piracy doesn't really impact opening weekends at all? Maybe the unfinished print acted as a massive tease for the final cut, something that primed the core audience and served as free publicity for everyone else. Or maybe audiences separate the experience of watching pirated movies online from the fun of seeing a big summer movie in the theater. We doubt it (and we never believed those rumors that Fox actually leaked the film itself to stoke buzz or create an excuse if the film fizzled). But look for the pirates to point to "Wolverine" and say the studios are crying, um, wolf, when they beat their drums about leaks hurting the bottom line. 

As we said, this is all just speculation. That's the frustrating part about rampant piracy: there's no way to know how sharp "Wolverine's" boxoffice claws might have been.    

RELATED: THR's Steven Zeitchik looks at the "mutating force" of piracy over at the Risky Business blog.

POST UPDATED WITH LINKS

Comments

[Jerry]

*sigh*, Mr. Belloni you obviously have no idea what you are talking about regarding pirates. Allow me to educate you. Movie pirates come in 2 types, those who would download the movie because they can't afford to or otherwise wouldn't see the movie in theaters anyway, and those who view the movie online to see if it is worth spending the cash to see it in theaters. The first type costs studios nothing as they would never have spent the money in any case and the second only costs the studio money if the movie sucks. The Dark knight was so easy to find online its funny and yet it was still the 2nd highest grossing film ever. Bottom line, piracy costs a studio absolutely zilch at the box office on a good film and may actually entice some folks to the theater who wouldn't have usually gone. A bad movie does pay a price, though not a huge one, for piracy because people don't waste there money on a flick they know is awful. The REAL place piracy costs the industry is when it is released to DvD.

[Shannon]

I think the issue here is that the industry is focusing on the wrong aspects. Yes, it is frustrating that the figures from opening weekend as becoming skewed (possibly) because of piracy, but that money doesn't have to be lost. The industry needs to tailor to the people that are still willing to pay money and understand WHY they do so. It's the movie going experience, which can't be replicated with downloading. I wrote a short blog on it: http://theheadliningact.blogspot.com/

If they focus on the things theaters offer that downloading can't, the movie industry will be just fine. Stop focusing on pirates - they are lost income from the beginning.

[thos]

Jerry's criticism of Belloni is just wrong, I am afraid. The research shows that films do suffer from piracy during the theatrical window (see the UK Film Council web site, for instance).

[skeptical]

thos, what has the ukfc ever known about anything? that jumped up government quango.

the fact is: wolverine was never going to do better than this opening on this weekend, period. jerry is right -- the unfinished print hyped the movie and (I've seen the pirate download) was at such an early stage that nobody could have been said to have 'seen the film' -- let alone encroach on the box office. Box office revenues are secure -- the problem will be during DVD release, when fresh DVD rips, and R5 pirate copies hit the web, and the physical market starts to sink even further. and as everybody knows, it's DVD (and blu-ray that makes up the REAL cash for a movie - not box office)

[BloggerPal]

Wolverine, despite of piracy has soared in box office sales. However, the sales could have been more. Last week, Wolverine was the most "downloadable" movie on the internet.

[ArrectSek]

Nothing interesting, buy thank you. azvpo124

[MainPromoter]

It really doesnt matter what people think.... fact are facts: Myself and MANY people I know did not go see it in the theatre because we already saw it a month earlier. I love Marvel movies and will see all of them. I want to support them, so I will buy the Blu-Ray when it comes out, but piracy hurts the gross big time... FACT. Will also hurt DVD sales. Saddens me, and the only reason I didnt wait was excitement, but I plan to show restrain in the future because I want them to keep popping out these movies at higher intervals.

The idea that someone saw the free pirate version of the movie and that got them excited to go see it again for more money is a load of nonsense. This movie could have grossed 35-40% more theatrically and will lose even more than from DVD sales

[MainPromoter]

BTW 1 million people viewed is a bunch of more nonsense. You know anyone who likes Xmen or Marvel who didnt see it? ...

I didnt think so. Closer to 50 million

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